Honeywell | Market Forecast | OEM

Honeywell 2022 Business Aviation Market Forecast Shows Strong Growth

Honeywell’s 31st annual Global Business Aviation Outlook forecasts up to 8,500 new business jet deliveries worth $274 billion from 2023 to 2032, which is up 15% in both deliveries and expenditures from the same 10-year forecast a year ago. New business jet deliveries in 2023 are expected to be 17% higher than in 2022 with 20% higher expenditures.
Honeywell’s 31st annual Global Business Aviation Outlook forecasts up to 8,500 new business jet deliveries worth $274 billion from 2023 to 2032, which is up 15% in both deliveries and expenditures from the same 10-year forecast a year ago. New business jet deliveries in 2023 are expected to be 17% higher than in 2022 with 20% higher expenditures.

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Honeywell Business Aviation Market Forecast

Elite Wings spoke with Javier Jimenez-Serrano, strategic planning manager for Honeywell on the company's 31st annual Global Business Aviation Outlook.

Global purchase plans are higher; larger jets still command largest share of demand.

This year, surveyed operators reported new jet purchase plans on par with 2019 levels, with fleet addition rates doubling from last year’s reported intentions. Respondents’ feedback in this year’s survey aligns with industry reports of sold-out business jet production lines for the next several years.

“The business aviation industry is greatly benefitting from a wave of first-time users and buyers due in part to changing habits brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic,” said Honeywell Aerospace President, Americas Aftermarket, Heath Patrick. “The business aviation sector is expected to recover to 2019 delivery and expenditure levels by 2023, which is much sooner than previously anticipated. Demand for new business jets is as high as we’ve seen it since 2015, and we expect high levels of demand and expenditures for new aircraft for several more years.”

REGIONAL OUTLOOK

NORTH AMERICA

64 %

EUROPE

15 %

ASIA PACIFIC

10 %

LATIN AMERICA

7 %

AFRICA

4 %

AIRCRAFT DELIVERIES

10 Years

8,500

Aircraft

10 Years Valuation

$274 billion

2022

700

Aircraft

PURCHASE PLAN BY CATEGORY

Heavy/ Long Range

38%

of Deliveries

71%

of Market Value

Medium

26%

of Deliveries

19%

of Market Value

Light

36%

of Deliveries

10%

of Market Value

New Business Users

The business aviation industry is benefitting from waves of first-time private aviation users and buyers, which is likely attributed to COVID-19. At times in 2022, flight activity met levels not seen since 2007, which was the busiest year ever for business aviation. Concerns about exposure to pathogens and the reduction of premium class airline services helped drive recent growth in business and private aviation.

Flight Hours

9%

flight hour increase in 2022 vs 2021.

Market Retention

74%

of likely “new users” expected to fly at least the same in 2023 vs 2022

Sustainability

This year’s survey features a dedicated section on operators’ current and future plans to reduce their carbon footprint during operations.

50%

Operators currently implementing sustainable flying methods.

60%

looking to adopt new or increase sustainable methods in the future.

Methodology

Honeywell’s forecast methodology is based on multiple sources, including macroeconomic analyses, original equipment manufacturers’ production and development plans shared with the company, and expert deliberations from aerospace industry leaders. Honeywell also uses information gathered from interviews conducted during the forecasting cycle with 152 nonfractional business jet operators worldwide. The survey sample is representative of the entire industry in terms of geography, operation and fleet composition. This comprehensive approach provides Honeywell with unique insights into operator sentiments, preferences and concerns and provides considerable insight into product development needs and opportunities.

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